North American Natural Gas: Data Show Supply Problems
By admin on Oct 14, 2005 | In * Peak Oil, *Sustainability
Link: http://www.mnforsustain.org/natural_gas_supply_in_decline_youngquist_duncan_1203.htm
Natural gas supply in North America in decline, and no early simple solution is anticipated.
Walter Youngquist and Richard C. Duncan
December 2003
Those are the conclusions expressed in a study “North American Natural Gas: Data Show Supply Problems” just published in the journal Natural Resources Research by petroleum geologist Walter Youngquist, and electrical engineer Richard Duncan.
ED NOTE: This is a pivitol paper in understanding North American natural gas supply issues I have located a full HTML copy and crosslinked to the original. If you follow the issue this is required reading. Highly reccomended!
Follow up:
In Brief: See link for the full paper HERE.
Natural gas production in the United States peaked in 1971. Since then Canada has increasing supplied the United States to 15 percent of its needs in 2002. However, in 2002 Canadian gas production declined. That trend continued in 2003. Currently, 80 percent of all wells are drilled for gas not oil, but in spite of this increased effort the production decline has not been reversed. The amount of gas found per foot drilled has also declined 50 percent in the past decade indicating that the easy-to-find large fields have already been discovered. New gas wells are showing decline rates as high as 80 percent the first year.
At the same time, demand for natural gas in Canada, the United States, arid Mexico is increasing. In the United States, 60 percent of all homes are heated with gas, and 70 percent of new homes are designed for natural gas. Because of its clean burning qualities, natural gas is the fuel of choice for electric power production. In 2002, 90 percent of all new power plants were gas‑fired.
Known supplies of gas in northern Alaska and northwestern Canada have no pipeline access. A pipeline to Alaska's gas is 12 to 15 years away, and five to six years to Canada's gas.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) brought in by ship from abroad now provides only about one percent of domestic gas. More LNG terminals are planned but are expensive and take several years to site and complete. The United States exports gas to Mexico as gas demand there is not being: met by Mexican production.
“Natural gas supplies for North America appear to be of more critical concern than oil supplies for at least the next decade,” say Youngquist and Duncan.
Access to lands which are now off limits to drilling, chiefly in the Rocky Mountains, where extensive gas deposits are believed to exist, would help but not solve the gas supply problem.
Gas being developed from coal beds is coming on line and now provides about nine percent of United States gas. But this source may not balance the high decline rates of conventional gas wells, and extensive exploitation of coalbed methane is encountering environmental problems and opposition.
The study shows industrial use will decline as gas for home heating and power generation will have priority. Some gas‑dependent industries such as fertilizer and plastic operations have already shut down or have made plans to move abroad where cheaper and more abundant gas supplies exist.
Youngquist and Duncan suggest that the natural gas supply problem may have far reaching effects on the nation's economy in the near future.
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