Oil Depletion and
World Peak HydroCarbon Production
    A compendium of source material provided by
    The Four Quarters Interfaith Sanctuary
    of Earth Religion

     "We live in the most energy intensive civilization the world has ever known, and yet the average American knows nothing about energy. But things may have to get a lot more critical before the public is ready to hear the truth. You piss everyone off if you try to explain to a typical Republican that ‘There’s not enough oil in the U.S. for us to be self sufficient’ or tell a typical environmentalist that ‘Wind and solar cannot meet 100% of our energy needs."
       Charlie Brister, roughneck, oil field driller.

A Few Questions:
               When will United States oil production reach its peak?  2010?  2040?
    It happened in 1971 !
                            When will the world wide volume of new oil discovered annually peak?
    It happened in 1960.
                When will world oil production peak?
    Between 2005 and 2010, depending on world economic growth rates.
                What happens then?
    We move from a demand market, to a supply market; with world economies bidding against each other for finite oil sources. It has already started.
                When will we reach one half of current world oil production?
    Could be as early as 2035, and we will have added another 3 billion people who want to consume oil to the planetary load. (Think on what one-half current production means for the world economy)

       "The amount of oil we can take from the ground each year is about to reach a limit that cannot be increased by ingenuity or determination. That limit will then decrease forever, with short plateaus and little upward bumps on the way down. A similar limit for natural gas will follow in a few years.
       The act of taking oil or gas from the ground is called producing it. Since the start of oil production in the nineteenth century, the world has produced close to half of its ultimately recoverable oil resource. At the half-way point, the world will achieve its production peak -- more oil will be produced in a year near the half-way point than ever before or ever after. This statement follows from a regularity of oil production statistics first observed by Dr. M. King Hubbert. If we consider a large enough number of oil fields, their aggregate production rate will display a characteristic curve. The group of fields will reach a peak rate of aggregate production when half of the ultimately recoverable oil has been produced. After the half-way point, the physical properties of oil reservoirs and the variation of the dates of discovery of the fields will cause the aggregate rate of production to slow progressively until all recoverable oil has been produced. Hubbert used this regularity of oil field statistics to predict correctly that the lower 48 United States would produce half of their ultimately recoverable oil resource by 1972, and that production from the lower 48 states would, consequently, peak in 1972. "   

      David Delaney, May 2002


Click this graph for a detailed plot.
    Every one knows that world fossil fuels are a non-renewable resource, but most of us believe that their depletion is still far in the future, that it is not our problem or even our children's problem. But over the past five years a convergence of analytical techniques and much difficult statistical work has been performed by the oil and gas industry on this subject...   and the indications are astounding!

       This is an extremely complex subject, and to truly understand it, one must take the time to become conversant in the technical aspects and read the literature. On this web site we have attempted to catalogue many of the materials available from the web.
        And the source materials are not coming from the far left or far right; but rather from mainstream investment banking houses, oil exploration-development firms and from geologists from within the fossil fuels establishment.
         In fact both the political left and right are highly invested in the denial of fossil fuel supply limits. For without fossil fuels there is no hope of funding a liberal social agenda for the Political Left. And there is likewise no possibility of the "New" global free market economy sustaining itself for the Political Right.

        It is time to realize that culturally, we are a world of fossil fuel addicts; and we are exhibiting the symptoms of addiction in the terminal phase. Terminal Denial. As United States citizens we have enjoyed a 20 year economic boom based on selling the desire for our cultural model of fossil fuel addiction to the rest of the world...  and we have been very successful. But our cultural model is unsustainable and on a very near term time scale.
        In the later half of the 20th century, economic growth was the ability to process (consume) oil, but world peak production will be reached within 5-15 years at the maximum. Beyond peak, supply can never equal demand, and the long 100 year boom will be over. And with it the model of never ending global economic growth.

        Within the oil and gas industry, the lightbulb has gone off, with much talk about world oil supply peaking around 2005-2010, the discussion being lead by the industries research houses, investment bankers and geologists. After the acknowledged failure in 1998 of the Caspian basin to prove out as the worlds last (and much needed) super giant source of oil , the reality of the oil depletion situation has begun to sink into the industry. The US North Slope went past peak production on the late 80's and the North Sea oil basins have now  begun to pass through peak production and begin their irreversible decline.  Russia passed peak production in the late 80's. Saudi Arabia has begun massive nitrogen injection in its older fields to sustain current production, as has Mexico. China is purchasing development rights to South American super-heavy oils. And the United States? We passed domestic peak production in the early 70's; but we have an ace in the hole. Our military.

        Little noticed by popular consumer culture, the worlds economic powers have begun the last inning of "The Great Game" as they position to lock up the remaining supplies of fossil fuels. Where will the west get the oil it MUST have to grow (or even sustain) its economies after world peak production is reached; when a supply driven world oil price emerges and begins its never ending rise ? How will our USA economy survive when OPEC is the last source of our worlds current 80 million barrel a day habit? How will the USA maintain its economic dominance (and the military dominance it provides) in the face of third world resentment of our profligate consumption.
         Where is that last great supply of oil that we can gain control of and use to feed our addiction for another 20 years? Oil that will maintain our world power in the face of declining world supply and the end of the petrochemical age.

       

   A great place to start your education:

The Oil Depletion Resource Page
   Gives a brief description and links to some of the better overview articles, as of 2001.

Oil Depletion, David Delaney, August 2002
   A more in-depth but short treatment of the subject.

A detailed presentation with graphs by Dr. Colin Campbell
  

   Dedicated Web Resources:

The Hubbert Peak
     The best source for current information with exhaustive links, featuring the technical papers of the worlds geologists. This is a must read site. Should only take two or three days!

Die Off
    The name says it all. The author pulls no punches in his "end of the world as we know it" scenario. But the page is a wealth of hard technical links to academic and oil industry reports. Includes a complete section on the "New" market economic theories and their effect on our cultural denial of the reality of oil depletion.

    The Geologists and Engineers Weigh In:

M. King Hubbert
   The elder statesman of oil depletion, Dr Hubbert was chief scientist for the Shell Research Center and later Senior Research Geologist for the USGS. In 1956 he predicted, accompanied with much derision, that US oil production would peak in 1970, using statistical techniques based upon the physics of oil production, rather than economics. And indeed, US production peaked in 1971. His central observation is that any system growing on a demand driven basis using a non-renewable resource will experience peak production of that resource at the mid point of total supply. This observation has come to be known as the Hubbert Peak. His work is the basis of all modern analysis of the subject. Dr. Hubbert died in 1989 at the age of 86.

Colin C. Campbell
    As you read the technical literature, the name of Colin Campbell will appear often. A well known international geologist and oil development executive, Dr Campbell concluded his career as development chief for FINA North Sea. This page is the central resource for his monthly technical newsletters published since late 2000 (click on the ASPO News menu item).
    Reading these newsletters gives a good feel for the urgency of the situation as he tracks new production data as it is released from world governments. The feeling of unfolding drama is palpable. This is must read material.

Jean Laherrère
     Jean Laherrère worked for TOTAL for thirty-seven years in a variety of successively more responsible roles encompassing exploration activities in the Sahara, Australia, Canada and Paris. Since retiring from TOTAL, Dr. Laherrère has consulted worldwide on oil and gas potential and production. He has served on the Society of Petroleum Engineers/World Petroleum Congress ad hoc committee on joint definitions of petroleum resources. His work has formed the statistical bedrock in evaluating current oil production figures.

Kenneth S. Deffeyes
    is Professor Emeritus at Princeton University. Before joining the Princeton faculty in 1967, he conducted research at the Shell Oil research laboratory in Houston and taught at the University of Minnesota and Oregon State University. After retirement, he published a detailed analysis "Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage"

   Places to start from within the Fossil Fuel industry:

Oil and Gas Journal
     Perhaps the leading trade journal of the domestic fossil fuel industry. In the articles section, search on keywords like <oil depletion> <hubbert>.  Oil and Gas is a subscriber only web site but the search will pull up the opening paragraphs of articles. Notice the acceleration of industry discussion beginning in 1999.

Douglas and Westwood
Douglas and Westwood is a leading oil and gas research house, specializing in fossil fuel market assessment. The Oil and Gas Journal's review of Douglas and Westwood's World Oil Supply Report. makes for a good introduction. D+W's report can be yours for only $6,000; but you can download their PDF flyer here.  This is the real industry insider prediction.

Matthew Simmonds Inc
     The leading investment banker to the oil exploration business. In about 1998, the firms principle, Mr. Simmonds, began to look deeply into issues of oil depletion and future supply. Since 1999 he has provided seminars and lectures to the elite of the fossil fuel industry in exclusive senior executive retreats. His published lectures are very erudite and backed by a 30 year career lending money and advice to the oil exploration businesses of America. If you read all of his posted lectures (more than 30 and worth it), you will get a real feel for the evolving shock of an oil industry insider as the facts become clear. This is must read material.
     Download the most recent PDF presentation Oct, 2002

Groppe, Long and Little    2001
     An excellent graphical presentation produced by a leading Houston Texas oil consultancy. Quickly imparts the global oil supply situation.

USGS
     Not surprisingly, our own USGS has published (under the Bush administration) a monster report reassuring the public of fossil fuel peak production out to 2040 and beyond, but created and made possible with statistical caveats that only a specialist will notice. Buried in the USGS web site is this very interesting poster outlining world output peaking in 2005. It seems to be their in-house opposing view from staff Geologist L. B. Magoon. Very much worth the download.

Depletion: The elephant in the parlor.  From The Drilling Contractor Trade Journal
     What the folks who drill the wells are saying about the future of their profession.

     Commentary on the Politics of Oil::

World politics in the age of oil depletion    Brian Davey, April 2002 
    An analysis from the liberal camp of the geopolitics of oil and US Iraqi war aims.

The James Baker III Institute for Public Policy (click on Publications Menu)
    Named after the former Republican Secretary of State and Florida recount mastermind; this institute produces good material; but very much within the party line of the "New" Global Market Economy. From 1999 their policy papers on oil have become increasingly dire and have begun to address oil depletion as a policy priority.
     Important material, but for the policy wonk.
             STRATEGIC ENERGY POLICY CHALLENGES FOR THE 21ST CENTURY,  2001
       The massive report that is a right wing call to arms for dealing with the impending crisis in production.
       Quoting from the report: The problem is that "the American people continue to demand plentiful and cheap energy without sacrifice or inconvenience". "The world is currently precariously close to utilizing all of its available global oil production capacity". increasing "U.S. and global vulnerability to disruption, with Iraq effectively becoming a swing producer, turning its taps on and off when it has felt such action was in its strategic interest". World shortages could reduce the status of the US to that of "a poor developing country" demanding "a reassessment of the role of energy in American foreign policy ... Such a strategy will require difficult tradeoffs, in both domestic and foreign policy. But there is no alternative. And there is no time to waste." By assuming "a leadership role in the formation of new rules of the game", the United States will prevent any other power from exploiting its dependency and seizing the strategic initiative.
             RUNNING ON EMPTY?  PROSPECTS FOR FUTURE WORLD OIL SUPPLIES,  2000
       First mention of the oil depletion work of Campbell and Simmonds within a right wing policy publication. Close reading will reveal the difficulties of resolving the contradictions of the physics of oil production with "New" Market economy models of perpetual growth. While the political reality of the right wing power prevents dealing with oil depletion issues publicly, it is has now been incorporated as an important part of geopolitical policy for the current administration.

The Heritage Foundation
   The ultra conservative think tank that wields great influence with our current administration. Their research section is a wealth of global market policy statements.
           In Post-War Iraq, Use Military Forces to Secure Vital U.S. Interests, Not for Nation-Building 2002
            Quoting from the report: "The Administration should make it clear that a U.S. military presence in post-war Iraq will be deployed to secure vital U.S. interests."   " the Bush Administration should state that the U.S. military will be deployed to Iraq to secure the vital U.S. security interests for which the campaign is undertaken in the first place. Specifically, these war aims should be to... return Iraq to global energy markets and ensure that U.S. and world energy markets have access to its resources"

           The Road to Economic Prosperity for a Post- Saddam Iraq,   2002
           Quoting from the report:   "As the Bush Administration and Iraqi opposition groups plan the future of a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq ...  economic issues loom large. The United States, through its executive directors at the IMF and World Bank, should begin to advise the future leaders of Iraq's three primary ethnic groups to establish policies that will lead to a thriving modern economy. These policies should be based on "best practices" developed around the world in the 1990s, when the largest government privatizations in history occurred."
           "The winning strategy of structural reform and privatization also would benefit the industrial world, the United States and its allies, countries of the Middle East, and the developing world. Iraq's return to global markets would allow for a more abundant and stable energy supply, a higher cash flow for the Iraqi people, and numerous business opportunities for the region and the world. Iraq's restructuring and privatization of its oil and gas sector could become a model for oil industry privatizations in other OPEC states as well, weakening the cartel's influence over global energy markets."